Election results, did Celebrations begin too early?

As citizen’s reports came in via social media after Nigeria’s parliamentary election, a mass euphoria resounded across cyberspace, carried by tweets, facebook posts, blogs and the myriad Nigerian internet sites, clearly buttressing earlier predictions that social media will play a major role in the April elections.

People who are not familiar with the Nigerian situation must have wondered at that much hoopla on account of a parliamentary election results, but the excitement is not misplaced. The celebration was not purely on account of an assumed widespread defeat of the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP),but was hinged on the belief that votes, for the first time in a generation’s lifetime was allowed to count, and the hope that years of underdevelopment; high unemployment rate; decayed infrastructure and a general feeling of hopelessness in an otherwise endowed nation, may be at an end.

The celebrations were also an indictment of an under-performing ruling class, who many held responsible for the status quo and who, they feel, had not used 12 years of political dominance to address the rot in the system.

The spread of the celebrations in social media, not just cutting across social status, gender, age and tribe, shows that the longing for change is a common denominator in the country, and that this change is a very welcomed.

However, as time went on to show, the celebrations, largely on account of presumed PDP losses, started too soon. By the evening of Sunday April 10, a day after the election, the euphoria began to fade as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released the official results, which showed that the citizen’s reports were not as accurate as many had hoped they would be.

While the citizen’s report remained largely accurate in the south west, they were more farfetched in the North, South South and South East, especially early reports that had the senate President David Mark losing to Lawrence Onoja. In addition, the initial reports that the PDP no longer dominates in the parliament turned out to be not so true after all. The PDP did lose much more than it has ever done in the election, but managed to maintain its dominance of the South South and South East, while posting a very strong showing in the North East and Middle Belt.

Back to the old days

The election results from the South West did not come as a surprise to many keen watchers of the Nigerian political terrain. The zone is not just the current home base of the clearly formidable Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) but has always been known to lean towards political entities on which it could exert some level of control, especially if that entity is progressive minded. The zone also appeared for some time now, to be longing for the days of Alliance for Democracy (AD), which until the 2003 elections controlled the zone.  

However, much credit should be given to youths for the major role they played in helping ACN carry much of the South West in the last election. While the desire of the various youth led groups, most based in Lagos, is primarily to ensure the April election is free and fair, the hype they created is responsible for the extra awareness that prompted many elites and ordinary Nigerians who have never voted before to turn up and vote.

It would also suffice to add here that the South West is the bastion of the traditional media and new media - wielded by millions of passionate and youthful advocates for good governance - as such; incidences of rigging and voter coercion were reduced to the minimal.

Clinging to the old ways

The South East, which have been suffering from culturally entrenched migrations for decades, does not have the luxury of a vibrant youth movement and media presence consist largely of government owned TV stations and moribund newspapers that are more akin to newsletters. As such, the new media influence that played a large role in the South West situation was largely lacking.

Also, a different political structure exists in the south East, and does too in the South South. Perhaps that is why the results of the parliamentary election did not stray very far from the norm in both zones, as did the usual incidents of ballot snatching, before and during the elections.

Presently, from INEC records, states in the zones mentioned; Imo, Delta and Bayelsa, had the highest incident of ballot snatching during last Saturday’s elections.

An intriguing North

While the South West seem to have gone back to the old ways and the South East and South South sticking to their known devils, the North appear to be evolving in a different direction. Perhaps the situation in the North, where no clear political Direction that would have made predictions on the presidential election easier currently exists, is occasioned by the fact that three of the four most prominent presidential aspirants are from the zone. This zone is usually known to collectively back a consensus candidate during presidential elections in the past, not having one in this dispensation may be a sign of a willingness to depart from the part and enter a new era. However, some see this lack of traditional collective will as a blessing in disguise, if not for them, them for the ruling party, which stands to benefit from a divided vote – something it has already done, judging from last Saturday’s results.

Reason enough to celebrate

Though the CPC made very good inroads into areas that PDP used to control, the PDP still came out of the race as overall winner, with more seats in both houses than all the other parties combined. The PDP’s overall count, does not however give it the type of clear majority it used to enjoy, as a combined force of the other parties will dampen its influence on both houses - that is still worth celebrating.

The current standing, as it applies to much of the South West, North West and North East, shows an entrenchment of democratic ideals that Nigerians have prayed for for years, one that allows for people's vote to count. In the South East and South South, one cannot  honestly say this laudable change holds, and this is not because of the wins of the ruling party, but because of the situation on the ground and this is the horror that exists.

If at this moment, when the South East clearly lacks a political leader with national reckon, South Eastern politics is still bedevilled by intrigues like the one between ACN’s Senatorial candidate Chris Ngige and APGA’s Dora Akunyili, then we clearly have much more to do before the celebration really begins.

If in the South South, the politics that holds is like the one whose passing Nigerian celebrated after the parliamentary polls, then we not only celebrated too early, but are not looking at the bigger picture, which should capture the emancipation of every inch of Nigeria.

But then, there are clear cut reasons to celebrate and anyone who placed thumb on paper with a clear conscience on Saturday should celebrate. The walls are crumbling; the people of Nigeria have proven that they are ready to for the present realities of this world. Votes did count, even if not everywhere, but they counted in a greater spread than they have in 12 years, and that is worth hearty “congratulobias”.

Gradually, we are taking our affairs into our own hands and will, in time, prevail, even in those areas that are still lagging behind, especially if we do not forget them.

No, when everything is taken into consideration, we did not celebrate too early.

N/B
this piece was penned right after the parliamentary elections and though unpublished until now, till packs some truth.

National Census and the question of figures

Controversy have always surrounded Nigeria’s population figure.  This controversy, which questions the reliability of the figures posted by the National Population Commission after each census exercise, is by no means a recent development. In colonial era, when Britain held sway over what eventually became the Nigerian nation, the figures the census conducted by His Majesty’s government attributed to the Northern protectorate generated its own controversy, with many in the south contending that the livestock of the northerners were also counted as people – an allegation that persists to date, even if as usually stated jokingly.


The controversies over Nigeria’s census figure and the finger pointing and refutation that follow every exercise have a lot to do with the peculiarities that is the feature of the Nigerian situation. In Nigeria, the nature of the so-called unitary system of government adopted after the coup of 1966 makes population density one of the criteria for creation of wards and local governments. Since under this system, the numbers of local governments a state has determines not just the number of seats allocated to it in the federal legislature, but also the amount of revenue accruable to it from the federal account. 

It is on account of the above that people have continuously viewed the population figures emanating from the National Population Commission with scepticism. While one would not presume to know more than the experts, the aforementioned peculiarities that is inherent in the Nigerian nation makes these claims very plausible. There is, as they say in court, enough motives for people to inflate census figures, but before we argue – as many are wont these days – about the viability of a state like Kano having more people than a Metropolis such as Lagos state; we have to give ample consideration to the land mass of that state.

Lagos state is almost entirely built up, and many people who are just passing through fall into the fallacy of viewing the vast Sahel landscape of the northern states as being generally uninhabited. While the vastness of the place is not farfetched, the belief that it is uninhabited very much so. The population is only sparse when viewed with density in mind, but when the vast landmass is coupled with the fact that there are thousands of villages off the well-beaten track, an understanding of the figures posted would begin to appear.  

For those who would seek to disbelief this basic fact, a Friday excursion to any local government headquarter in any of the core northern states will serve as an eye-opener. Perhaps, by the time they spend hours, trying to negotiate through streets clogged with uncountable bicycles and motorbikes as Friday prayers wind up, the conviction will come from within. 

Igbo migration factor

Another factor, that many people fail to take into cognisance when arguing against the reality of the recent census figures, is the effect of Igbo migration. The Igbos are singularly unique in their penchant of moving away from their ancestral land in the southeast to abode in other parts of the country. It is because of this penchant of the Igbos that one can state without fear of contraction that, in every state in Nigeria, the Igbos are second only to the indigenes in terms of population figure and in some places, even surpass the indigenes.

Since the Igbos, being traders, are attracted to places where the viability of commerce is most assured, commercial cities such as Kano exerts a strong pull. This is not to say that Lagos is not as viable as Kano, but the latter triumphs based on association; the Igbo have had a much longer association with Kano than they have with Lagos – they even have their own section, the sabon gari.

In addition, Kano, despite having being a centre for commerce for centuries, is more friendly to the pocket that Lagos – and this is true of most northern towns –, and as such has a more established community business relationship, which is one of the things the migrating Igbo consider.

Contrary to what many believe, not many Igbo heeded the call to return home to be counted in the last census and this reflected in the census figures for the southeast. It is true that the southeast is more densely populated than both the southwest and the north, but again landmass plays a very visible role, as does the migration pattern mentioned earlier. Unlike what is obtainable in the north and to a lesser extent in the south west, it is not very possible to drive ten miles without passing a town in the southeast. However, where a house in the southwest and north might be fully occupied, it is very common to find that a ten room house in the southeast is either unoccupied or scantily occupied, this is however truer of the villages.

Lessons from the voter registration figures

The recent voter registration exercise, which many hoped would one and for all show avowed numerical strength of the south over the north, has come and went, and instead of easing the controversy appear to have granted it more impetus.

But this should not have been the case, anyone with a sense of history would, looking at the figure from both the north and south, clearly see a pattern that is in tandem with previous voters registration figures.

This figures, even if they are not to be taken to mean that the north is more populous, clearly proves another age-old maxim, that the north is more politically savvy than the south, and as such could muster more people to undertake the registration process.

The north central – where Kano, which according to the 2006 census has the highest population in the country, is located – posted the highest number of registered voters (19,803,689), followed by the south west (14,296,163), where second placed city Lagos is located. That these figures closely correlate with the percentage difference between the population figures for both areas is glaring and should serve as a justification for the census figures. That it does not satisfy many Nigerians should not read that the census is flawed, but that Nigerians have ample reasons to distrust each other.

While one cannot in fairness admit to the viability of the census figures, one can with all sense of clarity admit that the chances that the north will continue posting higher population figures, even when all the right data is captured, than the south is very high. In addition, the south east, except a reverse orientation is achieved, will continue posting lesser figures each census.

However, one is not prophetic enough to predict an end to the squabbles over population figures, as they are bound to continue, until perhaps we have a foolproof system of recording death and births in this country, but then, we may not need a national head count anymore.

The politics of bombs and voters wooing

It is election season in Nigeria. Surely, everyone – even those not usually concerned about things of that nature – must know that. Constant adverts on TV, Billboards and posters, pasted on buildings and streetlights – which by the way, break the very law politicians swear to uphold – make sure ones attention – no matter how unwilling – is drawn in and held.

Just like Christmas spirit afflicts the very air, election fever chokes the very essence of the country. The main actors, those who have more stake in the scheme of things – those a seasoned writer, whose name is jumbled with hundreds of other names – great and not – in the recess of my mind, called “the political class” – are out in force. Like in the not-too-distance past, they are all jostling for the right to govern our very existence, to impose their will us for another four years – which essentially, is what leadership in these climes entail.

Though the fever is yet to peak, the usual bloodletting, which many had hoped would not play out this time around, has already claimed Nigerian lives. Early March, at a PDP rally in Suleja, Niger State, Nigeria, the culture of indiscriminate bombing – Middle East style – was introduced to the Nigerian political equation.  This new tactic is a very clear departure from the old method of eliminating opponents via assassinations. Opponents, it would seem, are still the target of this new tactic, which appear to be an indirect attempt to scare away potential voters.

In suleja, 10 lives were untimely sent to the greater beyond. For what? Does stopping the election of one man justify the taking of human lives? NO! I say, not by a long shot.

While I do not seek to hold brief for the crop of people that call themselves politicians in Nigeria, who mostly lack a sustainable plan to move even a small local government forward, not to talk of a state or the Nigerian nation, it is imperative that we reassess ourselves. We need to call to mind those core values that used to be our bastion – whatever happened to being our brother’s keeper – and I very much doubt if there is any glory in planting bombs that go off when the perpetrator(s) is too far away to be harmed. That, I believe, is the height of cowardice.

There is no gainsaying the fact that the perpetrator(s) of this and similar heinous crimes against the Nigerian nation need to face hard-hitting justice, at least now we have the anti-terrorism law in effect, some examples need to be set.

This assertion should not read as exonerative to either opposition forces. Violence, it seems, is one thing the Nigerian politicians do not have in short supply. They swagger around during campaigns with a “do or die” mien that signals their intention to take on all comers. They buy thugs indiscriminately and sponsor same to follow them around in motorcades that remind one more of an all-conquering army advancing against enemies, than a peaceful political movement heading to actualise our collective dreams. The bitter truth is, if they devote half the resources they put into seeking for votes and strategising new rigging methods into the job of governance, Nigeria would be a much better place to live in.

The present state of Nigeria calls for us all to not just be onlookers. We should do more than pray for change, we should make change happen. The Nigerian youths have already proven that they have the power to make things work for them in a very oppressive environment, need I point out the growth of the Nigerian Movie, Music, comedy industry, and upcoming, the literary arts. Perhaps it’s time we transfer this ingenuity to the political arena, by not just voting in the right leaders, but constantly snapping at their heels to keep them on the right track thereafter.

first published in www.dailytimesng.com


Related articles

• Bomb explodes at PDP rally, killing at least 14, in Suleja, near Abuja (saferafricagroup.com)

Africa’s Development: The Word Is Emancipation

Image by annieo76 via Flickr

Why is Africa underdeveloped?

This question has been asked intermittently over the years and several answers have been provided, especially when African countries south of the Sahara are compared with the Asian Tigers with whom they were at par in terms of development as colonialism winded up, .

While some commentators, mostly Africans and the so-called liberal minded westerners, tend to lay the blame at the doors of the European colonial powers who they say took, and is still taking Africa’s resources while paying so little for these benefits. This group believe the colonialists have been replaced by multinational corporations that have effectively replaced the piece of broken mirror that bought dozens of slaves in the old days with bribes paid in dollars to a few corrupt politicians who then sanction the continuing rape of a much-exploited continent.

Others, less liberal, perhaps less politically correct, contend that the reasons are easily traceable to the genetic makeup of the African, that natural trait that gifts the black race a much lower intelligent quotient than other races, or so they say. For this group, the fate of countries like Haiti and Jamaica, which are not too far removed from that of sub-Saharan African countries, and that of the African American community, is too visible a point to be ignored.

However, another school of thought believes that neither the Africans nor the European colonialists are without blame. For this group, to which I must confess to belong, the culpability of the African in the continuing rape of the continent and the current culture of micro development is of utmost importance to any discourse on the reasons Africa is the way it is.

To this school of thought, Africans, even if a very minute number made up of corrupt politicians and technocrats, constitute the biggest hindrance to the development of the continent. Though they argue that lack of willingness by the political class to implement far-reaching policies contributes greatly in keeping Africa underdeveloped, they are quick too to concede that the western multinationals, through purchased influence, are doing everything possible to keep the status quo, which aids what many have come to believe is their exploitation of Africa.

However, beyond the political class and the multinationals, there is a bigger culpability; that of individual Africans who refuse to heed the call for emancipation from what the late Bob Marley so aptly called “mental slavery”.

To many Africans, mental slavery is a myth, something coined by people who needed something for which to blame the west. However, the truth is more effervescent than that. Without recourse to the dictionary, mental slavery is a concept simply explained to mean a psychological inclination towards self-depreciation. It is a disease that is widespread amongst people of sub-Saharan African decent wherever found--be it in the neon lighted avenues of Hollywood, USA, or in the stone and mortar house neighbourhood of my hometown Nkwe, Enugu state, Nigeria. It has found expression in our way of life, inflecting our speech patterns, our mode of dressing, our dances, and how we marry.

Though many seem not to know it, but the truth is there, we are daily losing ourselves, one bit at a time, to the dictate of a culture that is not perfect by a long haul.

The way we were

Our culture, in the past, was dynamic and tailored to suit our environment and temperament. Our forbearers were wise, very much so. The laws they gifted us, largely forgotten, were all embracing and suited for every foreseeable situation.

Most Africans have forgotten their culture or know so little about it that they easily deride it for being what they term ‘fetish’--a consequence cleaving to an European heritage Christian church that found new expression in Africa.

Even though a woman is not considered married in most African societies until her bride price is paid and other traditional rituals of marriage performed, the norm these days is to consign that act to mere formality, while more effort and money are spared towards a lavish ‘white wedding’ whose history or significance most African brides know little or nothing about.

These days the hype is all about Saint Valentine’s Day, Easter, Christmas, and of late and strangely too, Halloween and thanksgiving. One hardly hears about the new yam festivals, the coming of age festival, new moon and other stuffs that our fore fathers celebrated. We seem to think them too old fashioned.
Sometime ago, I was talking to a friend about the need for us to look backwards if we are to become more relevant, and she countered: “we are not farmers anymore, what would a new yam festival be about?” Anyway, I did not get mad or laugh when she could not explain the reason for thanksgiving, which she was advocating as a replacement.

Therein lay the source of our problems, and consequently, Africa’s continuous battle with under-development--our mental enslavement to western culture.

Our emancipation lies in our languages

The most visible aspect of this enslavement is our dependence on European languages for communication among ourselves.

Many reasons were proffered as to why most African countries chose to use the language of their colonial masters as ‘official’ languages, but most of these reasons, no matter how logical, all point to a belief that the salvation of the African lies without. Hence, the recourse to adopt foreign languages to act as a buffer between African tribes existing within an European demarcated territorial border.

This, I believe, is the greatest obstacle to development in Africa. Many people will readily contest this point, believing, erroneously, that Africans countries using European languages, as official language is a plus in the present age of globalisation. It is my belief that had African countries chosen to communicate with each other and the rest of the world with their own languages; they would have done much better than they have so far.

However, aside the much-vaunted advantages of using an ‘International’ language for communication, there are the dangers and disadvantages, usually under the surface, but becoming more glaring in Africa. Here, one finds that since the end of colonialism in Africa hundreds of languages have died out or become so adulterated with European words that they are now, functionally, hybrid languages – Igbo and Yoruba are ready examples.

Had we allowed our languages to be our medium of communication and expression within our countries, even if not with the outside world (as India and many others did) we would have made more impact at the world stage. The multinationals would still steal, but they would need to learn our languages to do this. The west would still cheat us by making sure we sell raw materials cheap to them and buy same back as fabricated goods, but they will need to program the computers in Hausa or Igbo. Imagine the joy of learning maths in Igbo, discussing theorem and logic in Yoruba or exploring the gray areas of law in Bini.

Yes, we would have had most of our citizen fluent in their mother tongue, with youths more eager to record the thoughts of the elders and write our traditions, largely oral, in the ink that will preserve them for tomorrow.

Years ago, we had a choice between our culture and the western culture, just like the Chinese, Indian, Japanese and many others had. Drawn by lack of respect for our heritage and urged on by the religion of our oppressors, masquerading as liberators, we chose to be more western than the white man was. Thereby consigning our soul to the dregs that history says it is at today.

Becoming western, we lost our culture, and with that loss, went the checks and balances that kept us on a straighter path than the new religions can only hope to dare.

By choosing to be western, we lost a chance to be relevant in the world, hence our underdevelopment.

Now we look on, as the rest of the world continues to run way ahead of us; praying that we someday catch up. We dream on, even as our culture, the messiah we ignored and continue to ignore, loses the battle to survive, every day.

Jos burns again: so let the talks begin

Once again, like uncountable times in the past, the north is in the throes of ethno-religious crisis. As usual, the security agencies are caught napping and aside from accusations of complicity in the crisis, seem to be all thumbs, with little or no idea of how to handle the situation, besides its age-old ‘shoot on sight’ solution. 

In a previous article, written some years ago, I dwelled on the nature of the north and after examining the numerous crises I witnessed and luckily escaped, while living in the north, concluded that ethno-religious crisis and the north of Nigeria are Siamese twins that may forever remain conjoined, unless the drastic is done.

I warned then that the north would blow up again way before the Boko Haram clash and the first Jos affair. My forecast was not based on any form of prescience, but as a result of a brief study of the history of ethno-religious clashes in the north.

In the north of Nigeria, from Jos and beyond, the truth about Ethno-religious crisis is not if it would occur, but when it will occur, again.

Let us not be deceived, the fight is more ethnic than religious, it is more about land than which prophet is greater, it is ultimately more about the language of your ancestors than the language of any sacred text, it is more about political control.

This fight is about the rights of the individual to exist with all benefits that accrue to a Nigerian anywhere in this country. In Jos, the Hausa-Fulani is fighting for relevance. They could not get the control they sought through the ballot; hence, the resort to violence, something evidence over the years have shown them to have a large stock of – fuelled by large-scale poverty and miss-education, something this country have a large stock of. The so-called natives of Jos – the Birom et al – are fighting to hold unto what they say is ancestrally theirs.  

However, before we accuse the people of Jos of ethnic discrimination, let us remember that every Nigerian is guilty of this one way or the other. Many Nigerians will argue this point, countering that the Nigerian constitution grants liberty to every Nigerian, but when you think about the possibility of an Igbo becoming governor of, let us say, Lagos state, then you will really understand what is at stake.

I grew up in the north and can say without fear of contradiction that the Hausa-Fulani is as prone to bigotry as the Igbo, Yoruba or Birom. I recall the policy of indigenisation during my primary and secondary school days, which allowed for two separate sets of school fees, one for the so-called settlers another for the so-called indigenes.  I still laugh anytime I remember the name changes that many of my friends had to endure in other to benefit from the considerable lesser school fees meant for the so-called indigenes. I still recall the dropping of surnames and the adoption of perceived Hausa names by many of my Igbo and Yoruba neighbours just to belong to that class. It was as if being Nigerian was not enough, you have to be something else too, in this case a pseudo-tribesman.

I am not a lawyer and have not paid much heed to the Nigerian constitution (this will change soon), but it has always been my belief that people are indigenes of where they are born. That should be the standard, but Nigeria is a peculiar place with peculiar ways, uncanny most times, of interpreting the law. In Nigeria, you are an indigene of where ever your father/grandfather hails, whether you know that place is not of consequence; hence the dropping of names native to any tribe by those who want to be seen as indigenes their present domicile.

There lies the genesis of the problem in Jos, the Hausa-Fulani, having lived more than 150 years in the area, feel they should be treated as equals. They seek to wield political power, to have a say in how they are governed. While there is nothing wrong, fundamentally, with this desire, the peculiarities I mentioned earlier deny them this right, just as it denies millions of Nigerians every day.

As an Igbo man in Kaduna and now in Lagos, I cannot recall the number of times I have been reminded of my status as a visitor. I was a visitor in Kaduna, despite spending my first 22 years there before leaving because of the constant threat that hangs over the neck of any southerner in the far north and the constant, unconscious, seeking of fastest routes to an army or police barrack as Friday prayers wind up.  Though perceived as a visitor in Lagos, that fear of decapitation by a seething mob is gone, but not altogether, as I now endure fear of one chance and whatnot. Its naija, you are not really safe anywhere.

Yes, Jos burns, again, and will do so again. Just as many other trouble spots in the north will too unless we stop deceiving ourselves, continuously believing, perhaps hoping, after every blow up, that we have seen the last. Far from it, we will continue to see these crises until we wake up and admit that we need to rethink and rephrase the laws that hold us together, albeit loosely, as a country.

Let us look into the past and learn. Let us set far-reaching goals that will ultimately make us a greater country. Let us not fear change, for it is inevitable. I believe the solution is a simple one; it only needs a willing leader to get it done. Some say this is one crisis to many, I say it is the hundredth of many more to come if we do not address the root causes.

Let us sit together and answer the question that desperately needs an answer, “are we Nigerians first and members of a tribe second?”  Let us throw away this constitution if it is not working properly and draw up a new one that will guide us into the light we so seek, or if need be, grant it the muscle it needs to properly work.

 I say let the talks begin! Enough is enough!

PS

I wrote this stuff before the new year eve bombing in Abuja. as such, my arguments have changed a little since then.